Risk and sex-specific trends of dementia and stroke in Italy Compared to European and high-income countries and the world: global implications.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the increasing trends in Italy may inform new prevention strategies and better treatments. We investigated trends and risk factors of dementia, stroke, and ischemic heart disease (IHD) in Italy with the second-oldest population globally, compared to European and high-income countries and the world. METHODS: We analyzed the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 estimates on incidence and burden (i.e., disability and death combined) of the three conditions in both sexes. We also analyzed the burden attributable to 12 modifiable risk factors and their changes during 1990-2019. RESULTS: In 2019, Italy had 186,108 new dementias (123,885 women) and 94,074 new strokes (53,572 women). Women had 98% higher crude dementia and 24% higher crude stroke burdens than men. The average age-standardized new dementia rate was 114.7 per 100,000 women and 88.4 per 100,000 men, both higher than Western Europe, the European Union, high-income countries, and the world. During 1990-2019, this rate increased in both sexes (4%), despite a decline in stroke (- 45%) and IHD (- 17%) in Italy. Dementia burden attributable to tobacco decreased in both sexes (- 12.7%) during 1990-2019, while high blood glucose and high body mass index combined burden increased (25.4%). Stroke and IHD had similar trends. CONCLUSIONS: While decreases in new strokes and IHDs are encouraging, new approaches to their joint prevention are required to reverse the rising dementia trends, especially among women. Life course approaches to promoting holistic brain health should be implemented at the community, national, and international levels before the growing trends become overwhelming.

The Global Landscape of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma and Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Incidence and Mortality in 2020 and Projections to 2040: New Estimates From GLOBOCAN 2020.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The aim of this study was to provide an overview of the burden of esophageal cancer in 185 countries in 2020 and projections for the year 2040. METHODS: Estimates of esophageal cancer cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for 2020. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated overall, by sex, histologic subtype (adenocarcinoma [AC] and squamous cell carcinoma [SCC]), country, and level of human development for 185 countries. The predicted burden of incidence and mortality in 2040 was calculated based on global demographic projections. RESULTS: Globally, there were an estimated 604,100 new cases of, and 544,100 deaths from, esophageal cancer in 2020, corresponding to age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 6.3 and 5.6 per 100,000, respectively. Most cases were SCCs (85% [512,500 cases]) and 14% (85,700 cases) were ACs. Incidence and mortality rates were 2- to 3-fold higher in male (9.3 and 8.2, respectively) compared with female (3.6 and 3.2, respectively) individuals. Global variations in incidence and mortality were observed across countries and world regions; the highest rates occurred in Eastern Asia and Southern and Eastern Africa and the lowest occurred in Western Africa and Central America regions. If rates remain stable, 957,000 new cases (141,300 AC cases and 806,000 SCC cases) and 880,000 deaths from esophageal cancer are expected in 2040. CONCLUSIONS: These updated estimates of the global burden of esophageal cancer represent an important baseline for setting priorities in policy making and developing and accelerating cancer control initiatives to reduce the current and projected burden. Although primary prevention remains key, screening and early detection represent important components of esophageal cancer control in high-risk populations.

Global cervical cancer research: A scientometric density equalizing mapping and socioeconomic analysis.

Cervical cancer has caused substantial morbidity and mortality for millions of women over the past decades. While enormous progress has been made in diagnosis, prevention and therapy, the disease is still fatal for many women-especially in low-income countries. Since no detailed studies are available on the worldwide research landscape, we here investigated the global scientific output related to this cancer type by an established protocol. The "New Quality and Quantity Indices in Science" platform assessed all relevant cervical cancer research published in the Web of Science since 1900. A detailed analysis was conducted including country-specific research productivity, indicators for scientific quality, and relation of research activity to socioeconomic and epidemiologic figures. Visualization of data was generated by the use of density equalizing map projections. Our approach identified 22,185 articles specifically related to cervical cancer. From a global viewpoint, the United States of America was the dominating country in absolute numbers, being followed by China and Japan. By contrast, the European countries Sweden, Austria, and Norway were positioned first when the research activity was related to the population number. When the scientific productivity was related to annual cervical cancer cases, Scandinavian countries (Finland #1, Sweden #4, Norway #5, Denmark #7), the Alpine countries Austria (#2) and Switzerland (#6), and the Netherlands (#3) were leading the field. Density equalizing mapping visualized that large parts of Africa and South America were almost invisible regarding the global participation in cervical cancer research. Our data documented that worldwide cervical cancer research activity is continuously increasing but is imbalanced from a global viewpoint. Also, the study indicated that global and public health aspects should be strengthened in cervical carcinoma research in order to empower more countries to take part in international research activities.

A Google Trends™ Analysis of Bladder Cancer: Determining Awareness Campaign Success, and Patients' Needs in Clinical Management.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine the interest and changing trends over time in the diagnosis and treatment of bladder cancer and its awareness campaign by examining the Google Trends application as an indicator of people's interest globally. METHODS: Using the Google Trends application, we determined the yearly and country-based relative search volumes of the term "bladder tumor" and of the methods used in the diagnosis and treatment of bladder cancer in the period from January 2004 to December 2019. We compared the median relative search volumes found in the period 2004-2011 (Period 1) with those found in the period 2012-2019 (Period 2). RESULTS: We found that the median relative search volume for bladder cancer decreased in period 2 and this was parallel to the decrease in the incidence rates in North America and Australia (p<0.001). We found that the bladder cancer awareness month did not cause an increase in the online interest (p>0.05). We found that the median relative search volumes of diagnostic cystoscopy and cytology were higher than those of molecular markers and imaging methods in line with guidelines (p<0.001). Also, TURBT was the most sought-term among treatment methods with increasing popularity in the second period (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: People use the internet intensively to search for information about bladder cancer. We think that several types of web-based applications such as "Google Trends" can help determine the behavioural patterns and tendencies of bladder cancer patients and affect the clinical decision-making processes, as well as readily determining the impact of cancer awareness campaigns to bring about an increased awareness in the society for the recognition of the importance of an early diagnosis.

Economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare facilities and systems: International perspectives.

International hospitals and healthcare facilities are facing catastrophic financial challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The American Hospital Association estimates a financial impact of $202.6 billion in lost revenue for America's hospitals and healthcare systems, or an average of $50.7 billion per month. Furthermore, it could cost low- and middle-income countries ~ US$52 billion (equivalent to US$8.60 per person) each four weeks to provide an effective healthcare response to COVID-19. In the setting of the largest daily COVID-19 new cases in the US, this burden will influence patient care, surgeries, and surgical outcomes. From a global economic standpoint, The World Bank projects that global growth is projected to shrink by almost 8% with poorer countries feeling most of the impact, and the United Nations projects that it will cost the global economy around 2 trillion dollars this year. Overall, a lack of preparedness was a major contributor to the struggles experienced by healthcare facilities around the world. Items such as personal protective equipment (PPE) for healthcare workers, hospital equipment, sanitizing supplies, toilet paper, and water were in short supply. These deficiencies were exposed by COVID-19 and have prompted healthcare organizations around the world to invent new essential plans for pandemic preparedness. In this paper, we will discuss the economic impact of COVID-19 on US and international hospitals, healthcare facilities, surgery, and surgical outcomes. In the future, the US and countries around the world will benefit from preparing a plan of action to use as a guide in the event of a disaster or pandemic.

The new normal for breast cancer surgery during COVID-19 pandemic: An international survey conducted by SENATURK.

PURPOSE: The COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way many health institutions approach their workload. Physicians managing patients with cancer now have to deal not only with the disease but also the restrictions and limitations imposed because of the global pandemic. We aimed to determine how surgical preferences in breast cancer management were affected globally using a questionnaire-based survey. METHODS: Under the auspices of the Turkish Senology Society (SENATURK) we asked 122 surgeons from 27 countries to reply to a 26-question survey designed to measure the impact of COVID-19 on their surgical practice when treating patients with breast cancer. RESULTS: The characteristics of participant surgeons were statistically similar when comparing the participants' answers from Turkey and other countries. From the responses given to our questionnaire, it was understood that breast cancer surgery decreased by 25% (p<0.05) in institutions all over the world, including Turkey, but there was no change in the approach technique to the axilla. CONCLUSIONS: Globally breast surgeons have adapted to the new normal due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Many surgical approaches and some follow up protocols have been changed, although the degree of change has varied from country to country. In addition, the availability of multidisciplinary case conferences has been reduced in some centers which may affect the quality of services provided to patients.

Comparing cancer and cardiovascular disease trends in 20 middle- or high-income countries 2000-19: A pointer to national trajectories towards achieving Sustainable Development goal target 3.4.

With the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) target of a one-third reduction in noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) less than a decade away, it is timely to assess national progress in reducing premature deaths from the two leading causes of mortality worldwide. We examine trends in the probability of dying ages 30-70 from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer 2000-19 in 10 middle-income (MICs) and 10 high-income (HICs) countries with high quality data. We then predict whether the SDG target will be met in each country for CVD, cancer and for the four main NCDs combined. Downward trends were more evident in HICs relative to the MICs, and for CVD relative to cancer. CVD and cancer declines ranged from 30-60% and 20-30% in HICs over the 20-year period, but progress was less uniform among the MICs. Premature deaths from cancer exceeded CVD in nine of the 10 HICs by 2000 and in all 10 by 2019; in contrast, CVD mortality exceeded cancer in all 10 MICs in 2000 and remained the leading cause in eight countries by 2019. Two of the 10 MICs (Colombia and Kazakhstan) and seven of the HICs (Australia, Chile, Italy, New Zealand, Norway, Slovakia, and the U.K.) are predicted to meet the SDG NCDs target. Whether countries are on course to meet the target by 2030 reflects changing risk factor profiles and the extent to which effective preventative and medical care interventions have been implemented. In addition, lessons can be learned given people living with NCDs are more susceptible to severe COVID-19 illness and death.

Global Research Trends in Robotic Applications in Spinal Medicine: A Systematic Bibliometric Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We systematically evaluated the global research trends in robotic application on the spine through bibliometric analysis and mapping knowledge domains. METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed of the PubMed and Web of Science, including the Science Citation Index Expanded, databases. The number, countries, journals, and authors of the publications, total citations, average publication year, and institution sources were analyzed using Microsoft Excel, the Online Analysis Platform of Bibliometrics, and VOSviewer. The hotspots were analyzed and visualized using VOSviewer. RESULTS: We identified a total of 2135 publications. The United States ranked first in the number of publications (n = 824; 38.63%) and frequency of citations (n = 29,075). Northwestern University had the highest number of publications (n = 67) and Harvard University the highest number of citations (n = 4198). The Journal of NeuroEngineering and Rehabilitation published the largest number of reports (n = 73), and the most frequently cited journal was Nature (n = 3844 citations). The research hotspots were divided into 3 categories analyzed by VOSviewer: rehabilitation, basic science, and surgery. According to the average publication year, the most recent hotspot was radiation exposure, and the earliest hotspot was radiosurgery. CONCLUSIONS: The number of studies of robotic application on the spine has continued to increase. The United States was the greatest contributor to robotic applications on the spine. Robot-assisted rehabilitation for neurological and orthopedic lesions is still a major research hotspot. The range of robotic applications on the spine has expanded from assisted rehabilitation to assisted rehabilitation and surgery.

Global, regional, and national burden of blindness and vision loss due to common eye diseases along with its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

To map the magnitudes and temporal trends of blindness and vision loss (BVL) due to common eye diseases along with its attributable risk factors at the national, regional, and global levels. The annual burden of BVL in 204 countries and territories was extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and causes composition change were calculated to quantify the temporal trends of BVL-related disease burden by sex, region, and eye disease. The global disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of BVL increased from 12.44 million in 1990 to 22.56 million in 2019, with a slightly decreased rate from 3.03 to 2.78 per 1000 population (EAPC = -0.30). About 29.6% of BVL-related DALYs worldwide were caused by cataract, followed by refraction disorders (29.1%), near vision loss (21.7%), other vision loss (13.7%), glaucoma (3.3%), and age-related macular degeneration (2.5%) in 2019. The age-standardized DALYs rates due to each eye disease type in most regions were decreased, especially in countries with high burden and high-middle socio-demographic index. Moreover, the contribution of smoking and air pollution from solid fuels to BVL burden decreased, however, the age-standardized burden of BVL attributed to high body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose elevated gradually across almost all regions. The temporal trend of BVL burden due to specific eye diseases varies remarkably by region, sex and age. Understanding the real-time patterns of BVL burden is crucial for formulating more effective and targeted prevention and healthcare strategies to decrease the BVL burden.

A Contemporary Systematic Review on Repartition of HPV-Positivity in Oropharyngeal Cancer Worldwide.

Significant variation in human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) across countries ranging from 11% in Brazil to 74% in New Zealand has been reported earlier. The aim of this study was to systematically review the most recently published studies on the occurrence of HPV in OPSCC globally. PubMed and Embase were systematically searched for articles assessing the occurrence of HPV+ OPSCC published between January 2016 and May 2021. Studies with a study period including 2015 and the following years were included. Both HPV DNA and/or p16 were accepted as indicators of HPV+ OPSCC. 31 studies were enrolled comprising 49,564 patients with OPSCC (range 12-42,024 patients per study) from 26 different countries covering all continents. The lowest occurrences of HPV+ OPSCC were observed in India (0%) and Spain (10%) and the highest occurrences were observed in Lebanon (85%) and Sweden (70%). We observed great variation in HPV prevalence in OPSCC worldwide varying from 0% to 85%. The highest occurrences of HPV+ OPSCC were found in general in Northern European countries, USA, Lebanon, China, and South Korea. We observed a trend of increase in HPV-positivity, indicating a mounting burden of HPV+ OPSCC.

Assessment of Global Trends in the Diagnosis of Mesothelioma From 1990 to 2017.

Importance: It is difficult for policy makers and clinicians to formulate targeted management strategies for mesothelioma because data on current epidemiological patterns worldwide are lacking. Objective: To evaluate the mesothelioma burden across the world and describe its epidemiological distribution over time and by sociodemographic index (SDI) level, geographic location, sex, and age. Design, Setting, and Participants: Annual case data and age-standardized rates of incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years associated with mesothelioma among different age groups were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 database. The estimated annual percentage changes in age-standardized rates were calculated to evaluate temporal trends in incidence and mortality. The study population comprised individuals from 21 regions in 195 countries and territories who were diagnosed with mesothelioma between 1990 and 2017. Data were collected from May 23, 2019, to January 18, 2020. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcomes were incident cases, deaths, and their age-standardized rates and estimated annual percentage changes. Secondary outcomes were disability-adjusted life-years and relative temporal trends. Results: Overall, 34 615 new cases (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 33 530-35 697 cases) of mesothelioma and 29 909 deaths (95% UI, 29 134-30 613 deaths) associated with mesothelioma were identified in 2017, and more than 70% of these cases and deaths were among male individuals. In 1990, the number of incident cases was 21 224 (95% UI, 17 503-25 450), and the number of deaths associated with mesothelioma was 17 406 (95% UI, 14 495-20 660). These numbers increased worldwide from 1990 to 2017, with more than 50% of cases recorded in regions with high SDI levels, whereas the age-standardized incidence rate (from 0.52 [95% UI, 0.43-0.62] in 1990 to 0.44 [95% UI, 0.42-0.45] in 2017) and the age-standardized death rate (from 0.44 [95% UI, 0.37-0.52] in 1990 to 0.38 [95% UI, 0.37-0.39] in 2017) decreased, with estimated annual percentage changes of -0.61 (95% CI, -0.67 to -0.54) for age-standardized incidence rate and -0.44 (95% CI, -0.52 to -0.37) for age-standardized death rate. The proportion of incident cases among those 70 years or older continued to increase (from 36.49% in 1990 to 44.67% in 2017), but the proportion of patients younger than 50 years decreased (from 16.74% in 1990 to 13.75% in 2017) over time. In addition, mesothelioma incident cases and age-standardized incidence rates began to decrease after 20 years of a complete ban on asbestos use. For example, in Italy, a complete ban on asbestos went into effect in 1992; incident cases increased from 1409 individuals (95% UI, 1013-1733 individuals) in 1990, peaked in 2015 after 23 years of the asbestos ban, then decreased from 1820 individuals (95% UI, 1699-1981 individuals) in 2015 to 1746 individuals (95% UI, 1555-1955 individuals) in 2017. Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that incident cases of mesothelioma and deaths associated with mesothelioma continuously increased worldwide, especially in resource-limited regions with low SDI levels. Based on these findings, global governments and medical institutions may consider formulating optimal policies and strategies for the targeted prevention and management of mesothelioma.

Educating the Next Generation of Global Neurosurgeons: Competencies, Skills, and Resources for Medical Students Interested in Global Neurosurgery.

BACKGROUND: Global neurosurgery operates at the intersection of neurosurgery and public health. Although most global neurosurgery initiatives have targeted neurosurgeons and trainees, medical students represent the future of global neurosurgery. METHODS: A narrative review of the literature regarding research methodology, education, economics, health policy, health advocacy, relevant to global neurosurgery was conducted. RESULTS: We summarize pearls that all medical students interested in global neurosurgery should know. DISCUSSION: To become effective agents of change within global neurosurgery, medical students must master competencies of motivation, organization, collaborativeness, dependability, flexibility, resilience, creative problem-solving, ethical thinking, cultural humility, and global awareness and gain knowledge and skills regarding research, education, policy making, and advocacy. Discussions with neurosurgeons and trainees, neurosurgery interest groups, conferences, university global neurosurgery initiatives, and student organizations represent opportunities for learning and becoming involved in global neurosurgery.

Global incidence and prevalence of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive debilitating lung disease with considerable morbidity. Heterogeneity in epidemiologic studies means the full impact of the disease is unclear. METHODS: A targeted literature search for population-based, observational studies reporting incidence and/or prevalence of IPF from January 2009 to April 2020 was conducted. Identified studies were aggregated by country. For countries with multiple publications, a weighted average was determined. Incidence and prevalence data were adjusted for between-study differences where possible. The final model included adjusted estimates of incidence and prevalence per 10,000 of the population with 95% confidence intervals. As prevalence estimates vary depending on the definitions used, estimates were based on a specific case definition of IPF. RESULTS: Overall, 22 studies covering 12 countries met the inclusion criteria, with 15 reporting incidence and 18 reporting prevalence estimates. The adjusted incidence estimates (per 10,000 of the population) ranged from 0.35 to 1.30 in Asia-Pacific countries, 0.09 to 0.49 in Europe, and 0.75 to 0.93 in North America. Unadjusted and adjusted incidence estimates were consistent. The adjusted prevalence estimates ranged from 0.57 to 4.51 in Asia-Pacific countries, 0.33 to 2.51 in Europe, and 2.40 to 2.98 in North America. South Korea had the highest incidence and prevalence estimates. When prevalence estimates were compared to country-specific rare disease thresholds, IPF met the definition of a rare disease in all countries except South Korea. There were notable geographic gaps for IPF epidemiologic data. CONCLUSIONS: Due to differences in study methodologies, there is worldwide variability in the reported incidence and prevalence of IPF. Based on the countries included in our analysis, we estimated the adjusted incidence and prevalence of IPF to be in the range of 0.09-1.30 and 0.33-4.51 per 10,000 persons, respectively. According to these prevalence estimates, IPF remains a rare disease. For consistency, future epidemiologic studies of IPF should take age, sex, smoking status, and the specificity of case definitions into consideration.

Planning for tomorrow: global cancer incidence and the role of prevention 2020-2070.

Cancer is currently the first or second most common contributor to premature mortality in most countries of the world. The global number of patients with cancer is expected to rise over the next 50 years owing to the strong influence of demographic changes, such as population ageing and growth, on the diverging trends in cancer incidence in different regions. Assuming that the latest incidence trends continue for the major cancer types, we predict a doubling of the incidence of all cancers combined by 2070 relative to 2020. The greatest increases are predicted in lower-resource settings, in countries currently assigned a low Human Development Index (HDI), whereas the predicted increases in national burden diminish with increasing levels of national HDI. Herein, we assess studies modelling the future burden of cancer that underscore how comprehensive cancer prevention strategies can markedly reduce the prevalence of major risk factors and, in so doing, the number of future cancer cases. Focusing on an in-depth assessment of prevention strategies that target tobacco smoking, overweight and obesity, and human papillomavirus infection, we discuss how stepwise, population-level approaches with amenable goals can avert millions of future cancer diagnoses worldwide. In the absence of a step-change in cancer prevention delivery, tobacco smoking will remain the leading preventable cause of cancer, and overweight and obesity might well present a comparable opportunity for prevention, given its increasing prevalence globally in the past few decades. Countries must therefore instigate national cancer control programmes aimed at preventing cancer, and with some urgency, if such programmes are to yield the desired public health and economic benefits in this century.

Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and initiation among young people in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Universally, smoking cessation rates among established smokers are poor. Preventing young people from starting use of and becoming addicted to tobacco products remains a key strategy to end the tobacco epidemic. Previous country-specific studies have found that initiation of smoking tobacco use occurs predominantly among young people and have found mixed progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use among young people. Current and comparable estimates for all countries are needed to inform targeted interventions and policies. METHODS: We modelled two indicators: prevalence of current smoking tobacco use among young adults aged 15-24 years, and the age at which current smokers aged 20-54 years in 2019 began smoking regularly. We synthesised data from 3625 nationally representative surveys on prevalence of smoking and 254 on age at initiation. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to produce estimates of the prevalence of smoking and age of initiation by sex, for 204 countries and territories for each year between 1990 and 2019. FINDINGS: Globally in 2019, an estimated 155 million (95% uncertainty interval 150-160) individuals aged 15-24 years were tobacco smokers, with a prevalence of 20·1% (19·4-20·8) among males and 4·95% (4·64-5·29) among females. We estimated that 82·6% (82·1-83·1) of current smokers initiated between ages 14 and 25 years, and that 18·5% (17·7-19·3) of smokers began smoking regularly by age 15 years. Although some countries have made substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use among young people, prevalence in 2019 still exceeds 20% among males aged 15-24 years in 120 countries and among females aged 15-24 years in 43 countries. INTERPRETATION: The fact that most smokers start smoking regularly before age 20 years highlights the unique window of opportunity to target prevention efforts among young people and save millions of lives and avert health-care costs in the future. Countries can substantially improve the health of their populations by implementing and enforcing evidence-based tobacco control policies that prevent the next generation from initiating smoking. FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies.